The estimated minimum investment required for adaptation is relatively small this decade, rising dramatically beyond 2030 to 2050
Between now and 2030, an estimated minimum of USD30.4 billion of adaptation investment is needed in the 10 markets in this study, in a 1.5°C global warming scenario. This minimum assumes that adaptation measures are put in place as they are needed, rather than ahead of time, and only includes adaptation that is feasible to implement – such as flood defences along particularly vulnerable stretches of coast as opposed to a nation’s entire coastline.
India accounts for more than a third of this figure, requiring nearly USD11 billion to support infrastructure redevelopment and other adaptation measures to cope with increased drought and flooding. China also needs substantial investment in adaptation measures – over USD8 billion.
Estimated minimum adaptation investment required by 2030 in a 1.5 °C warming scenario USD billions, by market
On a sector level, across the 10 markets in this study, the most significant investment is needed in agriculture, which requires USD13 billion of adaptation finance between now and 2030. Agriculture is highly sensitive to temperature changes and extreme weather events, so even a limited temperature rise (1.5°C) will have a big impact.
Agriculture also forms a relatively large part of the 10 economies.
Industry – including sectors such as manufacturing and transport – is close behind with an estimated USD11.7 billion of investment required by the end of 2030. Measures needed include improved air conditioning, heating or energy efficiency measures for properties, and more advanced disaster management systems.
The service sector – which includes businesses in the knowledge economy and tourism – will benefit from adaptation measures which preserve crucial infrastructure and natural capital. Investment in more resilient offices, including air conditioning and weatherproofing, and infrastructure such as telecoms, alongside habit and ecosystem restoration, will require an estimated USD5.7 billion.
Estimated minimum adaptation investment required by 2030 and in a 1.5°C warming scenario USD billions, by sector
While a minimum estimated USD30.4 billion investment in adaptation measures will be required this decade, the requirement for investment increases dramatically in the years up to 2050.
Across the 10 markets in the study, an estimated minimum of USD317.4 billion will be required between now and 2040, rising to USD1.4 trillion between now and 2050 under a 1.5 °C warming scenario. This huge increase – which assumes successful mitigation efforts in line with the Paris Agreement – underlines that investment in climate adaptation will only become more urgent beyond 2030.
Minimum adaptation investment needed in a 1.5 °C scenario, by 2040 and 2050, respectively USD billions, by market
Investment needed in a 3.5°C warming scenario A failure to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement would have devastating consequences for societies and ecosystems. Should temperature rises reach 3.5°C, for example, the minimum adaptation investment required by 2030 is projected to double to USD61.7 billion across the 10 markets in this study.
This further underscores the importance of urgent and effective efforts to mitigate climate change.
Estimated minimum investment in adaptation required by 2030 in a 1.5°C and 3.5°C warming scenarioUSD billions, by market
Market
1.5°C scenario
3.5°C scenario
Percentage increase
UAE
2.7
9.8
263%
Pakistan
0.6
2.1
250%
Egypt
0.9
2.3
156%
China
8.1
17.3
114%
Nigeria
1.5
3.0
100%
Kenya
0.2
0.4
Vietnam
1.1
83%
Indonesia
4.0
6.8
70%
India
10.6
17.0
60%
Bangladesh
1.2
1.9
58%
Case study: Water Supply in Angola
According to the World Bank, Angola ranks 138 out of 140 for reliability of water supply. The country has an abundance of water, but its hydraulic infrastructure needs strengthening for reliability, capacity and resilience.
With Angola’s Ministry of Finance, Standard Chartered coordinated USD1.1 billion of dual-facility financing backed by the IBRD and Bpifrance, to help transform the capital Luanda’s water production, purification, transmission, storage and distribution facilities, through the investment in water treatment plant, a transmission system, water storage facilities, distribution centres and installation of new networks and metered connections.
The Luanda Bita Water Supply Project is expected to improve access for over two million residents to potable water service in selected parts of South Luanda, contributing to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 6, which relates to increasing access to clean drinking water and sanitation for all.
